{ "model_version": "finio-model-v0.2", "model_hash": "1ca61364bedd56423aed91a1db012dd6f58abba3ce8748a71fdc895c4cce8d03", "evaluation_protocol_version": "finio-evidence-v0.2.1", "generated_at": "2026-11-01T11:40:19.646Z", "data_cutoff": "2026-10-29", "training_dataset_cutoff": null, "architecture": { "algorithm": "paired-moving-block-bootstrap-v1", "paths": 512, "supported_horizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 ], "volatility_min_horizon": 2, "supported_query_types": [ "Positive / negative terminal returns", "Finite percentage thresholds", "Benchmark outperformance (SPY live; AAPL in this cache study)", "Maximum daily-close drawdown", "Volatility change versus prior 20 sessions", "Return ranges [lower, upper)" ], "forecast_reused": true, "reuse_checks": 8099, "inferences_per_forecast": 1, "additional_inferences_per_query": 0, "additional_training_per_query": 0, "probability_resolution": 0.001953125 }, "archived_study_context": { "assets": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "JPM", "XOM" ], "origin_start": "2026-07-07", "origin_end": "2026-09-30", "outcome_end": "2026-10-28", "recomputed_metrics": { "n": 112, "brier": 0.2200671945299421, "log_loss": 0.6273445016089788, "ece": 0.14095633370535715, "accuracy": 0.6696428571428571, "auroc": 0.7190598017268948 } }, "performance": { "primary_task": { "horizon": 5, "event": { "metric": "return", "operator": ">", "value": 0 } }, "metrics": { "n": 1157, "brier": 0.24985766925993105, "log_loss": 0.6929756600216118, "ece": 0.031221302398444253, "accuracy": 0.5315471045808124, "auroc": 0.5366959983239054 }, "origin_start": "2026-07-02", "origin_end": "2026-10-01", "outcome_end": "2026-10-08", "assets": [ "AAL", "AAOI", "AAPL", "ABBV", "ABNB", "ABT", "ACN", "ADBE", "ADI", "ADP", "ADSK", "AEP", "AKAM", "ALAB", "AMAT", "AMD", "AMGN", "AMKR", "AMZN", "ANET", "AON", "APH", "APLD", "APO", "APP", "APTV", "ASTS", "AVGO", "AXON", "AXP", "AXTI", "AZO", "B", "BA", "BAC", "BB", "BE", "BKNG", "BKR", "BLK", "BMNR", 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Best baseline selected descriptively on test Brier, not independently validated.", "brier_95": [ 0.24337583058099946, 0.26342094123542487 ], "paired_brier_difference_vs_best_95": [ -0.003282936350647666, 0.0033014856620139452 ] }, "protocol": "All eligible local symbol files; fixed 20-session stride from row 252; origins strictly after 2026-06-30; full 20-session outcomes required; 253-row trailing context; seed 1701. No tuning. Baselines compare only positive 5-session returns on identical rows. Historical 5d bootstrap uses only trailing context. Cached AAPL replaces unavailable SPY.", "baseline_training": { "cutoff": "2026-06-30", "excluded_assets": [ "NVDA", "XOM" ], "n": 51334, "first_date": "2022-11-01", "last_label_date": "2026-06-30", "weights": [ 0.14029239844755467, 0.005939706973554811, 0.006482984812122379 ], "iterations": 100, "features": [ "intercept", "20-session log return ×10", "19-return volatility ×20" ], "frequency": 0.5402462305684341 }, "external_foundation_model_comparison": "NOT YET MEASURED" }, "generalization": { "time": { "assets": [ "AAL", "AAOI", "AAPL", "ABBV", "ABNB", "ABT", "ACN", "ADBE", "ADI", "ADP", "ADSK", "AEP", "AKAM", "ALAB", "AMAT", "AMD", "AMGN", "AMKR", "AMZN", "ANET", "AON", "APH", "APLD", "APO", "APP", "APTV", "ASTS", "AVGO", "AXON", "AXP", "AXTI", "AZO", "B", "BA", "BAC", "BB", "BE", "BKNG", "BKR", "BLK", "BMNR", "BMY", "BNY", "BRK.B", "BSX", "BTSG", "BX", "C", "CAH", "CAR", "CAT", "CB", "CCL", "CDNS", "CEG", "CELH", "CHTR", "CI", "CIEN", "CIFR", "CL", "CLS", "CMCSA", "CME", "CMG", "CMI", "COF", "COHR", "COIN", "COP", "COST", "CRCL", "CRDO", "CRM", "CRWD", "CRWV", "CSCO", "CSX", "CTAS", "CVNA", "CVS", "CVX", "DASH", "DDOG", "DE", "DELL", "DHR", "DIS", "DOCN", "DUK", "DVN", "DXCM", "EBAY", "ELV", "ETN", "ETR", "F", "FANG", "FCX", "FDX", "FITB", "FIVE", "FIX", "FLEX", "FN", "FSLR", "FTNT", "GD", "GE", "GEV", "GILD", "GIS", "GLW", "GM", "GOOG", "GOOGL", "GS", "GWRE", "HCA", "HD", "HIMS", "HLT", "HON", "HOOD", "HPE", "HUM", "HUT", "HWM", "IBKR", "IBM", "ICE", "ILMN", "INTC", "INTU", "IONQ", "IREN", "ISRG", "JCI", "JNJ", "JPM", "KHC", "KKR", "KLAC", "KMB", "KO", "KR", "KVUE", "LIN", "LITE", "LLY", "LMT", "LOW", "LRCX", "LULU", "LUNR", "LYV", "MA", "MAR", "MARA", "MCD", "MCHP", "MCK", "MCO", "MDB", "MDT", "MELI", "META", "MNST", "MPC", "MPWR", "MRK", "MRSH", "MRVL", "MS", "MSFT", "MSTR", "MTSI", "MU", "NBIS", "NCLH", "NEE", "NEM", "NET", "NFLX", "NKE", "NOC", "NOW", "NTAP", "NU", "NVDA", "NVTS", "NXPI", "ODFL", "OKLO", "OKTA", "ON", "ONDS", "ORCL", "ORLY", "OWL", "OXY", "PANW", "PATH", "PCAR", "PEP", "PFE", "PG", "PGR", "PH", "PINS", "PL", "PLTR", "PM", "POET", "PPL", "PWR", "PYPL", "QBTS", "QCOM", "RBRK", "RCL", "RDDT", "RDW", "REGN", "RGTI", "RIOT", "RIVN", "RKLB", "ROST", "RTX", "SBUX", "SCHW", "SHOP", "SHW", "SLB", "SMCI", "SMTC", "SNDK", "SNOW", "SNPS", "SOFI", "SPGI", "SPOT", "STI", "STRL", "STX", "SYK", "T", "TE", "TEAM", "TEL", "TEM", "TER", "TFC", "TGT", "TJX", "TMO", "TMUS", "TPR", "TSLA", "TSN", "TT", "TWLO", "TXN", "UAL", "UBER", "ULTA", "UNH", "UNP", "UPS", "URI", "USB", "V", "VEEV", "VLO", "VRT", "VRTX", "VSH", "VST", "VZ", "WCN", "WDAY", "WDC", "WFC", "WM", "WMB", "WMT", "WOLF", "WULF", "XOM", "XPO", "ZS", "ZTS" ], "origin_start": "2026-07-02", "origin_end": "2026-10-01", "outcome_end": "2026-10-08", "metrics": { "n": 1157, "brier": 0.24985766925993105, "log_loss": 0.6929756600216118, "ece": 0.031221302398444253, "accuracy": 0.5315471045808124, "auroc": 0.5366959983239054 }, "logistic": { "n": 1157, "brier": 0.24987773731328167, "log_loss": 0.6929048712535821, "ece": 0.015540079238176603, "accuracy": 0.5203111495246326, "auroc": 0.4789979348118883 } }, "asset": { "assets": [ "NVDA" ], "origin_start": "2026-07-07", "origin_end": "2026-09-30", "outcome_end": "2026-10-07", "metrics": { "n": 4, "brier": 0.22530746459960938, "log_loss": 0.6437106180784418, "ece": 0.474609375, "accuracy": 1, "auroc": null }, "logistic": { "n": 4, "brier": 0.21515884525897377, "log_loss": 0.6233452499351513, "ece": 0.46385168933996135, "accuracy": 1, "auroc": null } }, "group": { "status": "NOT NEWLY MEASURED", "interpretation": "No comprehensive sector metadata. Original energy/XOM partition remains in archived study." }, "task": { "horizon": 10, "event": { "metric": "return_bucket", "operator": "between", "value": [ -0.02, 0.04 ] }, "metrics": { "n": 1157, "brier": 0.230258021770929, "log_loss": 0.652683576530545, "ece": 0.06690592588591183, "accuracy": 0.6171132238547969, "auroc": 0.6198503121407841 }, "interpretation": "No query trains the forecast engine. Range queries reduce existing paths; this is architecture support, not pretrained task transfer." }, "interpretation": "NVDA excluded from specialist baseline fit; forecast uses NVDA trailing context. No globally trained forecast model, so this is not pretrained zero-shot transfer." }, "efficiency": { "forecast_n": 1157, "query_n": 8099, "forecast_median_ms": 0.4852000000000771, "forecast_p95_ms": 1.0702000000001135, "query_median_ms": 0.0682000000001608, "query_p95_ms": 0.23789999999962674, "forecast_json_median_bytes": 388753, "model_source_bytes": 5362, "trainable_parameter_count": null, "parameter_note": "Not applicable to current statistical architecture", "process_peak_rss_bytes": 499859456, "memory_scope": "Whole Node evaluation process including cached data, training and scoring; not isolated inference memory", "runtime": "v24.16.0", "platform": "win32", "cpu": "11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-11800H @ 2.30GHz", "scope": "Local in-process wall time; includes initial cold forecast; no network, API, persistence or browser overhead. Query timings include mixed supported tasks. Not a cost comparison with another model." }, "prospective": { "source": "No durable v0.2 ledger export or local database found in this checkout; production database not queried.", "verified_local_records": 0, "issued": null, "resolved": null, "pending": null, "unique_assets": null, "first_prediction_date": null, "latest_prediction_date": null, "metrics": null, "definition": "Created and timestamped before the evaluation outcome was available. Historical evaluations and test fixtures are excluded.", "integrity": "Existing immutable D1 predictions reference forecast_id, model hash/version, cutoff, typed query, probability, horizon and protocol. Resolutions append outcome/date/Brier/log loss separately. No historical records rewritten. Production counts remain unknown without an audited export." }, "data_provenance": [ { "source": "Polygon authenticated daily aggregates", "purpose": "Live asset + SPY context", "scope": "Live", "authentication": "Bearer key; configured provider", "training": "No global training", "evaluation": "Future outcome resolver", "rights": "UNVERIFIED", "notes": "Authentication does not establish commercial, storage, derived-data or training rights. Account entitlement documentation absent. Split-adjusted price returns, not dividend total returns." }, { "source": "Existing Yahoo-derived cache", "purpose": "Bounded historical research + specialist baseline fit", "scope": "Historical", "authentication": "Unknown", "training": "Only lightweight baseline fit; no global forecast training", "evaluation": "Both historical studies", "rights": "UNVERIFIED", "notes": "Acquisition/license/commercial/training/redistribution rights unknown. Raw bars excluded. Adjustments may be revised; current universe induces survivorship bias." }, { "source": "Caller-supplied history", "purpose": "Local browser research", "scope": "Historical import", "authentication": "Caller supplied", "training": "None", "evaluation": "Not prospective evidence", "rights": "UNVERIFIED", "notes": "User responsible for authorization; not a production training moat." } ], "limitations": [ "Current architecture prototype is not a trained finance foundation model.", "No predictive edge established; losing baselines retained.", "Many decisions share a forecast; assets and dates are dependent. Confidence intervals are exploratory.", "Expanded study is a new sample; not directly comparable to v0.1 or the original 112-decision v0.2 study.", "AAPL benchmark is not SPY. SPY outcomes unmeasured locally.", "Cached data rights, acquisition timing, revisions and survivorship limit validity.", "No external foundation-model comparison or accuracy/compute Pareto win.", "Production prospective counts unavailable locally; zero verified local records is not proof of zero production predictions." ], "reproducibility": { "runner": "scripts/generate-evidence.mjs", "runner_sha256": "91d6ca4f7203fbb6ea1b7e36a0bb2c71b24d1ab62a817093aad47197db0faca0", "scoring_sha256": "7fa9786cc788cf04cec8d48e48aefabbc325a45d14c4a665ced0207af1194208", "rows": "evidence-v0.2-rows.json", "training_rows": "evidence-v0.2-training.json", "manifest": [ { "file": "AAL.json", "sha256": "2869c7288b210af110747744315b4f880858f6689009f830e576b8db5feee0e8", "rows": 1254, "first_date": "2021-11-01", "last_date": "2026-10-29" }, { "file": "AAOI.json", "sha256": "f32d5e0627180a9840b55c0c7070b1d0cd809303896bd25027b312aaaa24e5b1", "rows": 1254, "first_date": "2021-11-01", "last_date": "2026-10-29" }, 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