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Unseen is the fixed 33-symbol reserved group; CRWV, NBIS and TEM have no eligible training windows and are separately disclosed, not added to the reserved group after scoring." }, "tournament": [ { "architecture": "conditional-joint-gaussian", "validation": { "n": 8200, "brier": 0.21985842588471202, "log_loss": 0.6644918281837427, "calibration_error": 0.06833770007621952, "accuracy": 0.6451219512195122 }, "primary": { "n": 1025, "brier": 0.2509239122344226, "log_loss": 0.6949990332038374, "calibration_error": 0.04765434451219515, "accuracy": 0.48878048780487804 }, "selected": false }, { "architecture": "conditional-two-scale-joint-gaussian", "validation": { "n": 8200, "brier": 0.21096333201338605, "log_loss": 0.6121796258047107, "calibration_error": 0.04612566692073174, "accuracy": 0.6363414634146342 }, "primary": { "n": 1025, "brier": 0.25060715093845276, "log_loss": 0.6943358742309588, "calibration_error": 0.03904725609756096, "accuracy": 0.4770731707317073 }, "selected": false }, { "architecture": "conditional-two-scale-joint-gaussian-statistical-mixture", "validation": { "n": 8200, "brier": 0.20833072057584437, "log_loss": 0.6026815293087113, "calibration_error": 0.04971965510670732, "accuracy": 0.6452439024390244 }, "primary": { "n": 1025, "brier": 0.25496177859422636, "log_loss": 0.7031600834686047, "calibration_error": 0.07665015243902444, "accuracy": 0.47609756097560973 }, "selected": true } ], "calibration": { "method": "single shared trajectory scale selected by pooled Brier on separate calibration period; coherent scenario distribution", "selected_scale": 1, "candidates": [ { "scale": 0.8, "metrics": { "n": 6168, "brier": 0.22207004025133978, "log_loss": 0.6342657106019006, "calibration_error": 0.07385744720736057, "accuracy": 0.6011673151750972 } }, { "scale": 1, "metrics": { "n": 6168, "brier": 0.21462480010689464, "log_loss": 0.6167537304676021, "calibration_error": 0.049506715608787284, "accuracy": 0.6207846952010376 } }, { "scale": 1.25, "metrics": { "n": 6168, "brier": 0.2189323125955505, "log_loss": 0.6270428399224311, "calibration_error": 0.06872352768320363, "accuracy": 0.6126783398184177 } } ], "before": { "n": 6168, "brier": 0.21462480010689464, "log_loss": 0.6167537304676021, "calibration_error": 0.049506715608787284, "accuracy": 0.6207846952010376 }, "after": { "n": 6168, "brier": 0.21462480010689464, "log_loss": 0.6167537304676021, "calibration_error": 0.049506715608787284, "accuracy": 0.6207846952010376 }, "holdout_bins": [ { "lower": 0, "upper": 0.1, "n": 0, "predicted": null, "observed": null }, { "lower": 0.1, "upper": 0.2, "n": 0, "predicted": null, "observed": null }, { "lower": 0.2, "upper": 0.3, "n": 0, "predicted": null, "observed": null }, { "lower": 0.3, "upper": 0.4, "n": 0, "predicted": null, "observed": null }, { "lower": 0.4, "upper": 0.5, "n": 120, "predicted": 0.48753255208333335, "observed": 0.35 }, { "lower": 0.5, "upper": 0.6, "n": 1003, "predicted": 0.5430427467597209, "observed": 0.5333998005982054 }, { "lower": 0.6, "upper": 0.7, "n": 25, "predicted": 0.6084375, "observed": 0.76 }, { "lower": 0.7, "upper": 0.8, "n": 0, "predicted": null, "observed": null }, { "lower": 0.8, "upper": 0.9, "n": 0, "predicted": null, "observed": null }, { "lower": 0.9, "upper": 1, "n": 0, "predicted": null, "observed": null } ] }, "efficiency": { "forecast_median_ms": 1.5468000000000757, "forecast_p95_ms": 4.5625, "query_median_ms": 0.06889999999839347, "query_p95_ms": 0.3739000000023225, "process_peak_rss_bytes": 833347584, "memory_scope": "whole evaluation process including loaded private inputs, training targets and other models; not isolated worker peak", "runtime": "v24.16.0", "cpu": "11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-11800H @ 2.30GHz", "scope": "Local Node wall time using production engine; excludes feed, network and D1. Cloudflare latency not measured." }, "prospective": { "issued": 0, "resolved": 0, "pending": 0, "scope": "No real v0.3 predictions issued by this task. Test fixtures excluded; production not queried.", "retraining": "No automatic retraining. Only audited resolved prospective records may enter a later, newly versioned dataset." }, "data_provenance": [ { "source": "Existing Yahoo-derived equity OHLCV cache and separate SPY chart cache", "purpose": "Local model training, calibration and historical evaluation", "authentication": "Unknown existing acquisition", "training_permission": "UNVERIFIED", "evaluation_permission": "UNVERIFIED", "commercial_use": "UNVERIFIED", "redistribution": "UNVERIFIED; raw bars and target trajectories excluded from release", "notes": "SPY adjusted-close field used, not the AAPL proxy of the older study. Cache universe selected 2026-06-04, before final holdout but after historical training; survivorship limitations remain." }, { "source": "Polygon authenticated daily aggregates", "purpose": "Live context and resolution only", "authentication": "Existing server-side bearer secret", "training_permission": "UNVERIFIED; not used for training", "evaluation_permission": "UNVERIFIED", "commercial_use": "UNVERIFIED", "redistribution": "Account entitlement unverified; raw bars not served", "notes": "Live split-adjusted price returns differ from dividend-adjusted research cache. No rights inferred from account access." } ], "limitations": [ "Research Beta unless conservative primary and pooled baseline gates pass. No external comprehensive model comparison.", "Current-survivor universe, revised adjusted prices and unverified data rights limit historical validity. Not a point-in-time investable backtest.", "Training cache includes dividend adjustments; live feed is split-adjusted only.", "Independent Gaussian innovations conditional on origin state; learned scale mixture if selected. No explicit intraday dynamics or volatility clustering within a component.", "Daily-close drawdown only. Return queries use horizon end, not first-touch prices.", "No OHLC/volume, fundamentals or sector inputs in this close-only production-compatible schema.", "Monte Carlo error and market non-stationarity remain; calibration is historical and does not guarantee future reliability.", "Few shared final market dates and cross-asset dependence limit confidence.", "Walk-forward models refit only on each fold past; scale calibration not reused from future periods.", "Existing D1 binding and market-data secret are required for manual production upload. v0.3 uses a separate kind namespace in the existing immutable table; no database migration required." ], "protocol": { "version": "finio-eval-v0.3.0", "partitions": { "train": { "outcome_end_lte": "2025-06-30" }, "validation": { "origin_gte": "2025-08-01", "outcome_end_lte": "2025-12-31" }, "calibration": { "origin_gte": "2026-02-01", "outcome_end_lte": "2026-05-29" }, "final": { "origin_gte": "2026-07-01", "outcome_end_lte": "2026-10-29" } }, 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