DATA & LIMITATIONS
Know what is behind the number.
Finio’s models are experiments for market research and learning. No overall predictive edge or commercial data entitlement is established by this website.
Three kinds of evidence
- Simulations: v0.2 and v0.3 generate 512 modeled stock/SPY scenarios. Probabilities count scenarios satisfying a condition. Ranges describe modeled price returns, not guaranteed bounds.
- Historical tests: published v0.2 and v0.3 evaluation rows allow score recomputation. They are dependent tests sharing market dates, not independent prospective trials. Different versions and evaluation sets are not automatically comparable.
- Prospective records: a saved prediction and a later recorded outcome are separate events. Pending means no resolution has been recorded, even if the horizon has passed. Current live issued, resolved and pending totals and aggregate live accuracy are unavailable without an audited export.
Inputs and rights
The v0.2/v0.3 live adapters use a configured market-data provider. The current production configuration names Polygon authenticated daily aggregates: split-adjusted closes, not dividend-adjusted total returns. The data cutoff is the last completed market session included in a forecast, not a live quote.
Historical v0.2 evaluations and v0.3 training/evaluations use existing Yahoo-derived equity caches and a separate SPY chart cache. Permissions for training, evaluation, commercial use and redistribution have not been verified. Authentication or possession of a file does not establish those rights. Raw cached prices are not distributed in these evidence downloads.
v0.1 uses a separately hosted API. Its underlying training and evaluation artifacts and data entitlements are not available in this website checkout. Its displayed historical figures are supplied by Finio and could not be reproduced here.
What to inspect
Public records and research files
Successful live forecast and question requests are persisted and retrievable by their IDs. Treat saved prediction/evidence links as public. Do not include personal, financial-account or student information in questions. Uploaded research-history JSON is processed in the browser; local forecasts use this tab’s session storage for evidence views and are not durable public records.
All trading in the app is simulated. Signal scores, AI projections and model probabilities represent different outputs. None guarantees a profit or substitutes for your judgment.