SAVED FORECAST /
ESTIMATED PROBABILITY
01 / CHECK THE ESTIMATE
How reliable is this number?
Loading historical context…
Loading the published evaluation for this model…
Historical testing does not establish a predictive edge. Pooled results are context for this estimate, not a personal or asset-specific success rate.
Inspect matching rules and dates ↓02 / POSSIBLE RETURNS
A range of possibilities.
These ranges describe simulated terminal returns. They are not guaranteed limits or a confidence interval for the real outcome. Actual returns can fall outside them.
03 / LET THE MARKET ANSWER
What happened next?
One forecast, many questions
Each question reclassifies the same saved paths. No forecast generation or training.
Simulated path distribution
Median with 10th to 90th and 25th to 75th percentile regions. Values are normalized to 100 at the start. Percentile curves summarize paths; they are not individual paths.
Explore all paths
| Path | Return | Benchmark return | Event satisfied |
|---|
Why this path counted
Path construction
What distinguishes satisfying paths
Descriptive comparison only. These statistics do not explain causes.
Technical details Calculation, evidence rules and audit trail
Saved forecast identity
Historical comparison: eligibility and limitations
Production prospective totals are unavailable here. Published historical rows cannot verify how many predictions have been issued or resolved in the live ledger.
All modeled return statistics
Model methodology and baseline comparisons ↗ · Published evaluation JSON ↗ · Historical test rows ↗
Simulations describe a model. Historical tests measure past performance. Saved predictions record what was estimated before a later verification. These are three different kinds of evidence. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.